A bunch of us spent last weekend at NASCAR and watched a car, number 48, which was effectively out of the race early on with a flat tire and a three lap disadvantage, do the impossible and win that race. If someone had asked me to bet on number 48 at the time of the flat I would have told them they were crazy, the guy had absolutely no chance of winning. But, in hind sight, any other bet would have been a losing one.
http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/08/09/rob_enderle_on_amds_ati_strategy/