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Old 01-17-2011, 12:06 PM   #11
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Äߧý∩†H♠H䎀, you are exactly right.
it beggars believe that anyone would bet 310 dollars to try to win $10!! it just doesn't make sense.

And the odds aren't even 50/50 in roulette, there is a zero, so in fact it doesn't even make sense to bet $10 for a possible return of $20, since the odds aren't 50/50 they are less!

statistically you should never bet a greater ratio of what you have and what you'll win when your odds of winning don't support your ratio of failure.

basically, if the odds are truly 2:1 then a bet of $10 to win $20 makes sense
if the odds are 3:1 then a bet of $10 to win $30 makes sense, your odds are the same as your stake, so at the end of the night statistically you should walk away even. (with no more and no less than you came in with).

if the odds of you winning are 3:1 (you're likely to loose 2 out of every 3 bets) then betting 10$ to win $20 means that you will expect to come out at the end of the night with less money than you put in.

this is the problem with the martingale theory, you're constantly on the back foot, increasing your bet against the odds of winning, effectively throwing (large amounts of) good money after bad, all in the hopes that you'll win back a tiny first bet.

and since the odds of either a black or a red are aren't 18:36 they are 18:37 (or 18:38 in American roulette where there is 0 and 00).
which means that you're strictly never likely to see all of your money returned.

your odds of winning are 1 in 2.05, meaning that your stake should have a value of 1 in 2.05 to make sense.
if you bet $10 to make $20.50 then that's brilliant, but it's not your stake will only get you $20, and the odds don't support this as a good bet at all.

Basically, the house wins, (read the section called house edge on the roulette article on wikipedia).



However, Regarding the counting of cards, essentially that is what happens, if you know that in the time that you've sat at the table, that there are 7 decks, and you've seen 28 4's that if you're on 17 the odds of hitting a 4 to make up 21 is not just unlikely, it's impossible!

if you can remember the past 200 cards that have been played (and the deck hasn't been shuffled) then you're reducing your odds of busting out by more than half, or at least you're reducing the chances of making a silly play -by remembering more information about the game.
fundamentally there are of course different systems of counting cards, having a 100% reliable photographic memory is one method, but that would also mean that you have to site through several hundred hands to see the whole shoe.
Assigning cards groups of values, (so remembering how many cards valued 2 - 5, 6 - 9 10 or picture cards) will enable you to make more informed bets. (whilst only having to remember three numbers).

There is no law against counting cards, however all casinos have a right of refusal and could throw you out at any time!

Regarding poker, personally -and it might be because I perhaps can't pick up tells, I find that purely playing the maths is the most successful route to winning hands.
for myself I'd say that the psychology only comes into play when you know the maths dictates you're likely to win, then you can play psychological games, trying to invent ticks or tells and perhaps playing some obviously poor betting choices to lure your opponents into a false sense of security to try to maximise the pot that you're winning.
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Old 01-21-2011, 11:52 AM   #12
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Right, I tried.

Looked it up this time, and it seems you assign low cards (2-6) a value of +1, (7-9) a value of 0, and (10-A) a value of -1. Thus, by watching how the cards play out, the higher your value is, with a smaller amount of cards (+10 with 1 deck left as opposed to +10 with 4 decks left), the better your chances of getting a face card.

And I don't appreciate you laughing at me, I have very delicate feelings. -sniffle-
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Old 01-25-2011, 10:01 AM   #13
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Right people,

Just a quick update, i dont know how you will take this but here is my findings. . . . .

KNOW when to stop and DO NOT GET GREEDY. I suppose they are general rules of gambling anyway. . . but heres my experience.

I've been playing for probably a combined time of an hour or maybe 2 on Sky Vegas, i tend to just pop on there for like 5 / 10 minutes at a time and i managed to get from my £5 free that they gave me to a whopping £31!!

lol i know its still only £31 but hey the theory is there and this is in bets of 5p at a time.

Now you may ask what am i on now. . . . well £0.00 lol heres why, i got to £31 and drew £20 out into my bank account leaving me with £11 in their.

I began the system again . . . .

5p
10p
20p
40p
80p
£1.60
£3.20
By which time i think id bet £6.35 or something around that value and the money i had left didnt cover my orginal bet so i made something like a £6 last bet and lost it all.

Now i could trick myself into saying that if i never drew the £20 out i would have had enoguh money to back my theory and eventually would have won and gone back to my original 5p bet.

My personal thoughts, it works, no doubt about it as a strategic way of gambling at a casino then yes it is a great theory can you never lose. No of course you can lose and i did.

I've been sensible and took my free £5 made it into £31 drew £20 out which i shall be spending shortly lol and had a fun with the other £11

If you have the patience then try it especially if you have some free time and want to have some FUN!! make sure you are only doing it for fun and think to yourself it will be a bonus if you end up with money. I wouldnt reccomend any personal contributions to this theory unless it is in a very small amount ie £20 deposit into a Casino and betting in 5p increments.

Sorry for the long post lol
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Old 01-27-2011, 07:12 AM   #14
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

doesn't that prove the "system" doesn't work?

You kind of prove what I'm saying in your post.

if you had infinite funds to keep doubling the bet (all in the hop of an overall return of 5p) then I have to question why you'd be gambling at all?

you've got infinite funds, you'd only be playing for fun, so where is the fun in betting all your cash for such a little return.
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Old 01-27-2011, 10:16 AM   #15
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Well Root, i believe that depends on what you want to get out of the "system"
if what you want is a strategic way of gambling on a roulette table that is more likely to make you money than random bets then yes it does work. If what you a looking for is a system that will NEVER lose then no it doesnt work, unless as you state you have unlimited funds.

I 100% reccomend this theory for ultimate small time gambling, literally pennies!! Have patience and you might have some fun and come out on top!! Would i ever have the courage to start off with a £1 bet . . . . no that could escalate to hundreds so quickly!!
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Old 01-28-2011, 07:52 AM   #16
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Wander if you had like 10 accounts set up, £20 in each, and just had them running a macro to put a 5p bet on red or black alternating, or black / red consecutively. so you would win say 5p every 30 seconds x 10 for all the accounts, so 50p x 2 = £1 per minute. If you left these running throught the day would be pretty good.

.....

Probable Question: ''But what if it does come in black 10 times in a row, then you lose £20'

The odds of that are 50:50 - ten times. So (1/2) (to the power)10, so the odds are 1/1024 to one that it comes black or red ten times in a row, right? So odds wise every 1024 spins you would lose £20. You would be winning 5p a spin (50p if you include all 10 accounts) so after 400 spins x 5p = 2000p or £20, and still, according to the odds, have about 624 more spins before you lose your money (by which time any additional spins would be profit)

If you do it for all 10 accounts at once, then every 1024 spins you would lose £200. However by then you would be winning 50p a spin and after 400 spins, you would be even. On average / odds wise, would you not make £312.00 Profit?????

Obviously I havent added odds for hitting 0, would this really make up more than double the spins though?? - I dont think it would to be honest.. Even if 0 did come in, theres still a 1/512 chance of the next 9 numbers being all red or black, hence still in profit. If 0 comes in twice in a row - the odds drop to 1/256 - probably leading to a loss - if it goes by the odds - but then the odds of back to back zeros are 1/36 x 2 - 1/72 again.

Theres also different odds for 0 appearing in general in between all black:

Z = Zero, B = Black. B B B Z B Z B B B B. If you were betting red obviously you would not regain your 5p - although most places pay half back if you are playing red black so you would probably have enough to make an addidtional bet on red to increase your odds again.

I guess they block you from having 10 accounts though? And obviously 0 weighs in their advantage, if you played this theory for a long time overtime it must balance out to being up / even. Also you could stop when you are up / if you are watching the odds, and you are up say £200 and the odds say you have had 800 spins, and averagely in the next 224 you will lose money, then you could stop?

Obviously everything doesnt go by odds though..

I cant believe how much I just wrote / talked to myself........
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Old 01-28-2011, 05:00 PM   #17
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Ha Hs Luke, you have got dragged into this like i have, starts out as such a simple idea but as you begin to think about it in detail and htink about all of the possibilities it is extremely in depth.

The 0 does give the house the edge as someone previously posted you are betting on something that will double you money 2/1 but your odds of winning are not 2/1 i dont know about fractions but i believe they ar esomething along the lines of 0.46 therfroe the 0 will make a considerable differeance 10 fold!!

This does work but as well as the simple theory you have to use a little bit of brain power. . .

lets say i'm betting on Red and it comes in Red, so i reset my bet back to 5p and bet on Red again it comes in once again.

It has now been Red twice, what i would do in this situation is now swap to black, techincally i have already increased my chances of winning as 2 Reds have already come in a row the chances of it happening now 10 x in a row technically makes it 12 times in a row . . .

if you understand me?

Anyways, i'm onto poker now lol!!
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Old 01-31-2011, 06:27 AM   #18
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

G/Day All. I have read some of the post with great amusement. You can never win consitantly with the Martingale system. Firstly you cannot control the amount you bet. Secondly if the system was succesful it would be banned by casinos that is for sure.
In all my years (too many to count) I have only once come across one system that worked and unfortunately it was not roulette. It was twos up an Australian game which at one time was played in casinos in Australia, I don't think it is anymore. The beauty of that game was there are only two results that counted Two Heads.......Two Tails........ a head and a tail did not count. A real even money chance you won or lost.
As for the system I think I will keep that to myself. It was't foolproof but it worked about 80% of the time. Even money chances need some luck as well. Have a good day and bet wisely and remember
Casinos alway win in the long run.
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Old 01-31-2011, 06:32 AM   #19
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Numinbah, i'm not sure on the exact reason for this but i hear rumours that the reason they introduced maximum bets on tables was to prevent the Martingale Theory working successfully?

this of course may be completely wrong so no hatnig on me for saying that lol.

But it would explain that the Theory has some ground and backing to it that Casinos felt the need to introduce a way of stopping the theory?
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Old 01-31-2011, 06:35 AM   #20
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Default Re: Martingale Thoery - Roulette

Of course it doesnt work 100% of the time.. If it did they would tweak the game so it was in their favour. Its a good system for betting small - or a good system if you do a setup like mine, and you can afford to lose £20 a time in order to gain some in the long term. Its just a system that might get you close, it could win you 1000's and 1000's of £ or $ in 5p bets, over hours.. or you could lose £200 after 11 spins..
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