

01122011, 10:09 AM

#1

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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 4,273

Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Hello All,
Just want to spark off a discussion about the Martingale betting system.
For those who do not know what this is i will briefly explain.
You begin betting on something that will double your money if you win, lets pretend were talking about a coin toss here.
You bet a "friend" £1 that a coin flipped will land on heads.
If it does you get £2, your £1 in the green.
If it doesnt you proceed to the next stage.
You bet your friend £2 that the coin flipped will land on heads
If it does you get £4, your £1 in the grenn (£2 on this an £1 spent in the last round)
you repeat this over and over and continue to double your bet until you win and when you win you start from the beginning. Now providing you have an unlimited amount of money odds says that eventually the coin will land on heads and you will earn you £1 back.
That is the explanation of the theory but heres the discussion i want. . . .
I have been using this on an online better casino, (Sky Vegas) now i'm not stupid, i'm not throwing my life savings at this! But i registered and you get £5 free, so with that £5 i started on bets of 5p and ive been going up and up using this system and in a matter of an hour ive gone from the free £5 that they give you to having myself £14
I have no intention to invest my own money in this because i approach gambling with the attitude of only bet what you can afford to lose. This £5 was free so of course i can afford to lose it.
Now my betting system with 5p increments of 5p doubling has worked well and the highest bet i have had to put on was £1.60
5p
10p
20p
40p
80
£1.60
that was 6 x that i bet on "black" and it came out red.
The pessimists behind this theory say that you should stay well clear of it as no matter how many times the wheel has spun red you will still have a 50/50 (or 47%) chance of the next spin being a black or a red. . . . . . . Isn't this much like saying when playing the lottery with 49 numbers your chances of matching your 6 numbers to the 6 drawn are 1 in 49? despite the fact that once you have matched 1 your chances of matching thew 2nd and then the 3rd are greatly decreased?
Discuss. . . . . .
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01122011, 11:12 AM

#2

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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 7,903

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Seems like a decent theory. Until you get an unlucky streak and lose it all... lol. At least it's not your own money you are gambling with. I've wanted to try online poker myself sometime. I can usually do ok at it when I play with my friends, but people online are probably much better, lol.
Anyone know anything about counting cards in blackjack?
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01132011, 10:43 AM

#3

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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Ive never looked at counting cards before as it seemed complicated but this theory was just so simple and i could calculate the basic math behind it to say that it was so unlikely to lose.
Having said this, while testing out my 5p theory online i did manage to lose 8 times in a row, but i noticed that the bet i was placing EVEN numbers hadnt come up with 10 times!!
i started a bet after winning on ODD numbers twice and thought right there had been 2 ODD numbers there is going to be an even soon, switched to EVEN and managed to lose 8 times in a row, plus the 2 times id won on the opposite bet before!!!
10 fold on a £1 start would lead you to . .. 1248163264128256512 . . . which is a ridiculous amount of money to spend trying to earn £1
Ive not tried online poker either yet!! same as you pretty good with friends but not tried online, i spose its so much different with friends as u can try and get to know their playing styles!! Online its completely different
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01132011, 12:14 PM

#4

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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 7,903

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssc456
Ive never looked at counting cards before as it seemed complicated but this theory was just so simple and i could calculate the basic math behind it to say that it was so unlikely to lose.
Having said this, while testing out my 5p theory online i did manage to lose 8 times in a row, but i noticed that the bet i was placing EVEN numbers hadnt come up with 10 times!!
i started a bet after winning on ODD numbers twice and thought right there had been 2 ODD numbers there is going to be an even soon, switched to EVEN and managed to lose 8 times in a row, plus the 2 times id won on the opposite bet before!!!
10 fold on a £1 start would lead you to . .. 1248163264128256512 . . . which is a ridiculous amount of money to spend trying to earn £1
Ive not tried online poker either yet!! same as you pretty good with friends but not tried online, i spose its so much different with friends as u can try and get to know their playing styles!! Online its completely different

Yea, let us know how that works out for you over time if you end up winning. I would try poker, but I don't have much spending cash at the moment. Maybe this summer. Just for fun even, I like playing poker.
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01132011, 03:29 PM

#5

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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,451

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Never knew the name of this system but heard of it a while ago. It's normally used on the red black of a roulette wheel but in the real life casinos tables will have a limit on bets and pit bosses will happily ask you to leave if they see you employing the martingale theory.
I've never tried it but obviously the mathematics is sound isn't it; you can't fault it really.
From the poker point of view (although i'm not sure where it came from) i've never needed a formal card counting method but i keep a mental track on what i've seen come up, i run the maths, in my head as i go, on what the chances are that anyone else has a hand stronger than mine, and i keep a fierce but subtle eye on the body language of others, maths and psychology are all you need to win at in person poker.
The card count only plays a real part in black jack and methods like mixed deck and complex regular shuffles are used by casino's to remove any advantage that might give you
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01132011, 04:45 PM

#6

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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 15,233

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Wow what an interesting theory, so you just keep betting untill you win. I might try it on sky vegas just to see how it goes.
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01142011, 03:48 AM

#7

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Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 320

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Hi all, I do a fair bit of online and real life betting.
The Martingale Theory some / most casinos (local to me anyway) dont let you play this theory. If they see you doing it they warn you  online is different.
As you say  it is a good theory to win small amounts. The only risk in it, that has already been highlighted, is if you miss like 12 times in a row  you are better 1000's of pounds to win your £1 stake, and if you cant afford the bet, you are down A LOT.
I often bet in 'neighbours' bets. See if you can pick trends in the wheel, and then bet on a number you think it might land in that area, and cover 2 numbers either side of it, (so 5 numbers total), a £5 would return £35, plus your £1 on the number it landed on.
Black Jack depends on a few things I think. If theres poor players at the table, I dont like playing. I try to count how many Aces have gone in the deck have gone by so I know how many are left near the end, and pay general attention to pictures too (I cant count the pictures too hard). I then pay attention to the cards that were dealt last round, then play the percentages. If low cards have just been out, and you know theres a lot of aces and/or pictures left, then likelyhood you will get one next..
Again this is just a general algorithm (rule of thumb) you cant guarantee anything.
Play a lot of poker online too. Biggest win, $1800. $3 rebuy tournament. 4000 players, finished 4th. First was 5.5k Dont know what to say to be honest to help you  it depends what sort of player you are. The only thing I can suggest with online poker is if you are playing for free or very low stakes, dont expect to learn much, except how the software works ect. The players on low / free stakes just play stupid and reckless, and get lucky most the time. Just play a few $5 games / tournaments, or higher, and stay tight few the first few hands, to see who the idiots are. Never play games that are gonna blow your bankroll away.
Anything else happy to help with



01142011, 01:38 PM

#8

In Runtime
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 178

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Counting cards just involves exactly that, counting. You assign each card a number, it can either be the face value: 2=2, 5=5, J=11, A=14. You would watch how a table is playing out, monitoring EVERY card that you see the face of. As the deck goes along, the lower the numbers, the better. For example, If you saw 10 cards, and the values are: 2, 5, 10, 3, 6, 3, 12, 2, 11, 6; that is an average number of 6 (60/10). The lower this number is, the more likely it is that the deck will push higher cards.
I am no expert, but this is what I have gleaned from hearing about it. But the thing is, in most of the bigger casinos, they monitor this at the blackjack tables, so don't go to Vegas and expect to pull out a pad and paper to jot down some numbers! haha



01152011, 10:37 PM

#9

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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 3,623

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
Roulette is a suckers game and nobody should play it for the intent of actual making money (unless you were one of those early Vegas cheats that knew the wheel spin, drop etc). It's one of those games you walk by at the end of the night and drop some money on a number and see if you get lucky.
Here's why  The odds on the game NEVER change. Keeping things simple, playing red/black you've got a 50/50 shot. The number could come up black 10 times in a row and the next spin it's got a 50% change of coming up black again. Just because a color gets "hot" doesn't mean it's anymore likely to change on the next spin.
When you get 1/1 odds it makes zero sense to continue double betting to just break even. Example:
I bet $10 and lose, then $20, then $40, then $80 then $160 and I finally hit. I've essentially risked $310 dollars to win $10 and even then you're still 50/50 so theirs no guarantee you'll win. You will more than likely go bust since you have no edge.
If you want to try and make money gambling stick to either Blackjack or Poker. These are the only 2 games you can actually beat with skill although some lucky is still required. But, if you consistently put your money in as a favorite odds say you some come out ahead in the end. You will need a bankroll for either though, because if you go on a downward swing you'll need money to recoup the losses. Eventually your statistical edge will pay off and you'll make money.
@ Gkil164  Thanks for the laugh but that isn't how you count cards in blackjack LOL!



01172011, 04:16 AM

#10

In Runtime
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 320

Re: Martingale Thoery  Roulette
I have seen someone at the casino before playing £50 a hand (playing 2 hands) and them having 20 in their hand, vs the dealers 7, and he pulled a card on 20, and hit an ace.
The casino threw him out.
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